It's been a long strange trip over this past year but, for once, the league returned intact so I won't waste time with pleasantries.

 

2017 Season Recap

 

The 2017 season will forever go down as being the year of "The Great Experiment" with game planning.  Josh's horribly thought out disaster of a rule went down in flames after one awful season which saw crazy score jumps and teams that shouldn't have won (or lost) doing so.  Luckily, the league voted on the side of sanity this year and restored rules that will let the players determine scores on their own, as it should be. It was a year on steroids and I will always look back on the season's results as entirely questionable.

After turning around an absolute clunker of a team in 2016 and winning the championship in his first year, Derek had a falling off in a bitterly competitive White division to finish at 7-7, while another upstart new owner, Steve Schillinger, brought another historic clunker of a team back into the fight to win the White division.  This division was up for grabs well into November of last year before the Beavers went on a 5-2 tear to close out the year and take the division. Steve eventually lost in the playoffs to the eventual champs, the Amish Electricians, but he had a strong rookie campaign and takes home the Owner of the Year award (as voted on by our committee of me).  It's actually more of a compliment to Josh that he didn't win the award, since we've come to expect his team to perform at a high level and also his division sucked this past year.

Speaking of the Amish, they hit their stride after week 5 and rolled out a 7-2 record to close the season and take the title.  Josh won his fourth title in league history and now sits one title behind Byron and yours truly for the most championships won by a single owner.  Josh did not however fulfill his duty as champ and rename the Toilet Bowl loser, perhaps in homage to the late, great Sean Taylor (RIP). We speak your name.

 

Fancy Numbers

 

I try every year to put something new in here and not just do the same boring predictions year-after-year.  This year I wanted to try and put some math behind my predictions so I did some number crunching in an attempt to quantify potential team performance.  For the nerds out there, thanks to Josh and the addition of the API, I can now easily pull down team rosters and picks, dump into a database along with player rankings, and compute a base score for each team based on these player ranks.  There are a few issues with this, which I'll detail below, but it provides some interesting numbers.

The issues are pretty big so this needs to be taken with a grain of salt.

1) Since not all teams have the same number of players, I dropped each team down to 20 players.  For example, if you have 23 players on your team currently, I dropped the 3 with the worst rankings from your score.

2) The player rankings are based on my own ranking system, not one from any of these websites derived from so-called experts.  I suppose I could incorporate those in the future but mine takes into account our scoring system, unique positions like OL, keeper rankings, and my own personal feelings about players (kiss my ass Jay Ajayi, you screwed me for years).

3) There is no weight for the scores a player can generate.  Meaning, if I rank a DL as #2 and a RB as #2, they get the same weight even though the RB will far outscore the DL.  This is by far the biggest issue but maybe I can address it in future years if I feel like putting in the time. The point is really to determine how many top players a team has with the thought being that this will, in-turn, reflect how well they'll perform.

4) Some people drafted guys I didn't have ranked at all.  If you did this, they got the lowest ranking but, since I dropped the player counts down to 20, this should have a minimal impact.

 

On to the fun, based on this system here are the results.  The lower the score, the better the team should perform.

 

MeggaMen	155
Fightin' Bitin' Beavers	266
Trump Molests Collies	268
Fighting Squirrels	290
Norsemen	315
Amish Electricians	343
Crusaders	361
Testudos Revenge	371
Sacks on the Beach	381
Gallic Warriors	411
Richard's Lionhearts	455
Sean Taylor's Ashes	501

 

As one would expect, my team is the top result because we're using my rankings and I obviously drafted based on them, so we can discard that result since I really don't expect my team to be that good.  I think this pretty well reflects how the bottom teams have performed historically and I also think it reflects Mike's team pretty well, since he missed much of the draft. There are some ranks that I think are a bit out of whack, like Testudos Revenge and Crusaders, both of whom I think will be much better than this and I don't think the Fighting Squirrels will be the third best team (sorry Brian).  If anything, it will be fun to compare this with next year's results and see how the computerized method fares.

 

Team-By-Team Review and Predictions

Just to toot my own horn a bit, here are the results from last year's predictions.  I was close to spot on nearly 70% of the time. I clearly need to quit my job and pick phony team records for a living.

Nailed it	1 team
Missed by 1 game	7 teams
Missed by 2 games	3 team
Missed by 3 or more	2 team

 

 

Amish Electricians

2017 Predicted Finish: 9-5

2017 Actual Finish: 9-5 (damn I'm good!)

2017 Results: Josh did a great job again this year in fielding, by far, the best team in his shit division.  As always, he managed his team well and hit a good winning streak to close out the year and take home his fourth title.

 

Best Pick: Budda Baker

Worst Pick: Sammy Watkins

Strongest position: LB

Draft Grade: C

2018 Predicted Finish: 7-7

Summary:  Again, I didn't like Josh's draft but he'll probably do ok in his mediocre (but improved) division.  I didn't like pick of drafting an injured Jeffrey in the first round, nor did I like the picks of Watkins, Nelson, and Dalton.  In the end, he'll field a good QB in Stafford, close to great RBs in Bell and Howard (if/when Bell decides to play), and one good receiver in Davante Adams.  The best part of his team is his defense, where he's solid all around and potentially great at LB.

Norsemen

2017 Predicted Finish: 5-9

2017 Actual Finish: 7-7

2017 Results:  Byron had a very up-and-down year and didn't win back-to-back games until the last two of the season.  If it wasn't for the emergence of Alvin Kamara, my 5-9 prediction would have been accurate.

Best Pick: Robby Anderson

Worst Pick: Patrick Mahomes and Michael Crabtree (tie)

Strongest position: RB

Draft Grade: C

2018 Predicted Finish: 8-6

Summary: There wasn't much I liked about the early portion of Byron's draft this year but he closed it strong.  Newton was a fine pick in the first but a second year, unproven, QB in round two was a reach. He then took a WR on a new team in Crabtree, followed by several other players on new teams or picked way to early.  He'll field a stong QB in Newton, the best RB tandem in the league with Kamara and McCaffrey, and strong WRs with Keenan Allen and Anderson. On Defense, his DL will be good if JJ Watt can stay healthy and if Alec Ogletree can produce in NY.  He needs depth so his players remaining healthy will be the key to his year.

Richard's Lionhearts

2017 Predicted Finish: 4-10

2017 Actual Finish: 3-10-1 (soo close!)

2017 Results: I didn't like Richard's draft last year and it was reflected in his record.  He couldn't get the players of the momentum to win much of anything, but he gets a mulligan on his first year.

Best Pick: Sam Darnold

Worst Pick: Robert Woods

Strongest position: TE

Draft Grade: F

2018 Predicted Finish: 3-11

Summary: Yuck!  Where to start, he didn't have a first round pick so already the top talent was not available for him.  He started off by taking Robert Wood in round 2, pretty high for a guy on a team with alot of mouths to feed.  Ryan is fine at QB but I think there were better options out there. He took an OL in the third and several rookies (which is fine but who know how long until they produce) before settling in and taking a few ok picks.  Kendall Fuller, a slot corner, was taken super-high in the 7th and Teddy Bridgewater, a backup QB who may get traded any day now, was taken high in the 9th. As a result, he'll field a team without many strong points except Kelce at TE.  He NEEDs Mixon and Derrick Henry to emerge to make noise this year.

Sean Taylor's Ashes

2017 Predicted Finish: 2-12

2017 Actual Finish: 1-12-1 (man, I'm good)

2017 Results:  Disaster. Passengers on the Titanic didn't fare this badly.  Again, Don was a new owner who came in late to the game, so he get's a mulligan and a full season to redeem himself.  He only salvaged his season from being winless by beating the awful Richard's Lionhearts in the last game of the year.

Best Pick: Royce Freeman

Worst Pick: Nick Chubb

Strongest position: WR

Draft Grade: B+

2018 Predicted Finish: 6-8

Summary: Don made major strides in turning his team around and will be in contention for the division title late in the season.  In the end, I don't think that his team has enough to make it but he'll establish himself as a force this year. Julio Jones in the first was a no-brainer and Freeman in the second could prove to be an absolute steal.  I liked most of the rest of his draft with rare exceptions (CJ Anderson taken high, for example) but he did great overall. In the end, he'll field solid, and possibly great, QBs in Cousins and Keenam. He's got ok options at RB with Freeman, Chris Carson, and potentially Peterson (for a couple games anyway) but he'll have the best WRs in the league with Jones and AJ Green, as long as they stay healthy, and TE could be great if Reed stays upright.  His defense will be his undoing, with mediocracy in all areas.

Crusaders

2017 Predicted Finish: 9-5

2017 Actual Finish: 10-4 (another prediction that was off by one win, damn I rock!)

2017 Results: Over 10 wins twice in the last 3 years.  Whatever Hall is doing, he's doing it right, he just needs to get over the playoff hump.  He went 7-2 to close the season but lost to Mike in the first round of the playoffs.

Best Pick: Trey Burton

Worst Pick: Kenny Golladay

Strongest position: LB

Draft Grade: A

2018 Predicted Finish: 10-4

Summary: I always like Hall's drafts and he did another great job this year.  Thomas was a good first round pick and could prove to be the bounce-back player of the year.  Tate was great in round two and it kept going well from there with breakout candidate Trey Burton, Collins, Mariota, and more.  He complimented his team nicely and is poised to again dominate his division and cruise into the playoffs. He'll again field the top QB in Rodgers, good RBs in Dalvin Cook and Fournette, solid WRs in Thomas and Tate, and two potential top TEs in Burton and Gronk.  On defense, he may have the best LBs in the league and they're nicely complimented with solid DL and DB. It's been awhile since Hall won a title but this may be his year.

Fighting Squirrels

2017 Predicted Finish: 6-8

2017 Actual Finish: 7-7 (yet again, only 1 game off)

2017 Results: Brian did better than I thought by starting the season at 4-2 but then proceeded to go 3-5 the rest of the way to end the year at an even .500.

Best Pick: LeSean McCoy

Worst Pick: Adam Vinatieri (for the second year, why pick a kicker when you protected one?)

Strongest position: QB or WR is suppose, but he's pretty balanced

Draft Grade: B

2018 Predicted Finish: 6-8

Summary: This I copied verbatim from last year's review because it still applies.  "Brian had a good draft and there are very few picks I can argue with. The real problem is he doesn't have a good enough core group of players to move up to the next level."  At QB, Roethlisberger and Alex Smith will provide him with a solid pair but at RB he's just ok, with McCoy leading the way (if he can survive another year) and the ever-mediocre Lamar Miller.  Larry Fitzgerald, Tyreek Hill, and Chris Hogan make up a starting line of solid (or better) WRs and if Jimmy Graham can produce in GB he'll be set at TE. On defense, he's pretty mediocre all-around with only Jordan Poyer standing out to any degree.  In the end, with Hall dominating and Warren making a comeback, 7-7 will be tough to reach.

Gallic Warriors

2017 Predicted Finish: 8-6

2017 Actual Finish: 7-7 (wow)

2017 Results: Chris started strong out of the gate with a 3-0 record but stumbled from them on to finish at 7-7.

Best Pick: Kenny Stills

Worst Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars OL in round 1 (sure it was auto-draft but it still sucked)

Strongest position: DL

Draft Grade: D

2018 Predicted Finish: 5-9

Summary: Granted there was auto-draft involved but Chris still finished with a poor draft and a dismal season outlook.  As always, his entire team lives and dies on Tom Brady's arm (and health). The way things are going though, I think Brady will play until he's 50.  He'll field a team with a top QB, questionable RBs in Ajayi and Burkhead, and decent WRs with Thielen and Still leading the charge. His defense sports, far and away, the top DL pair in the league (if Khalil Mack plays) but the rest are poor to mediocre.

Trump Molests Collies (formerly Tim Always Pulls Out Late.  For the second year Warren wins for best team name)

2017 Predicted Finish: 5-9

2017 Actual Finish: 6-8 (it's uncanny)

2017 Results: Warren sported the best team on paper that couldn't win in reality.  It was really a tale of two halves for him, he went 1-7 to start the year before going 5-1 to close out, thanks largely to the emergence of Todd Gurley (who lingered on my roster for two years doing jack-shit) and Deshaun Watson.

Best Pick: Saquon Barkley

Worst Pick: Greg Zuerlein (a kicker in round 3?)

Strongest position: RB

Draft Grade: B+

2018 Predicted Finish: 8-6

Summary: A bounce-back year from Warren is in the cards and I predict him starting right where he left off.  I would not be surprised to see him in contention for the division as he'll field a top QB in Watson (as long as he returns to form), two potential top RBs in Gurley and Saquon Barkley, and solid WRs with Doung Baldwin and Mike Evans leading the way.  On defense, there is room for improvement on the DL but he has a strong LB in Jarrod Davis and arguably the top DB in the league in Keanu Neal. In the end, I think Warren will make some noise but he needs to improve his defense and stay healthy to make a run.

Fightin' Bitin' Beavers

2017 Predicted Finish: 6-8

2017 Actual Finish: 10-4 (ok, I can't get them all right)

2017 Results: Steve took the league by storm by jumping out to a 5-0 record in his first season as an owner, before dropping 3 in a row to eventually finish at a great 10-4 record.  He lost in the first round of the playoffs but he send a message to the league that his is not a team to be taken lightly.

Best Pick: Jerick McKinnon or Allen Robinson (I guess)

Worst Pick: Philadelphia Eagles OL (for the second year, he picked an OL pretty early)

Strongest position: QB or WR

Draft Grade: C+

2018 Predicted Finish: 8-6

Summary: I like how Steve manages his team but I think there were lots of question marks around his draft choices.  Both of his top two picks are dealing with injuries already and he's got some guys on new teams with question marks around them as well.  In the end, he's proven himself to be a capable owner and his predicted record speaks more to how well I think he'll manage his team during the season than anything else.  He's got a top QB in Russell Wilson, strong RBs in Devonta Freeman and Jerick McKinnon (potentially), and the best WR in the league in DeAndre Hopkins (ohh how I miss Dre so, he's the one that got away).  On defense, he's got a top DL, a fine LB core, and decent DBs. He'll be in the mix this year but it's literally impossible to predict this division.

MeggaMen

2017 Predicted Finish: 8-6

2017 Actual Finish: 7-7

2017 Results: Things were looking good for the MeggaMen at the halfway point, when they sported a record of 5-2, but things went south after that as they went 2-5 to close out and, (amazingly) with an almost .500 record, were in contention for the Toilet Bowl in the final game.  In total points, the MeggaMen finished less than 20-points away from the Crusaders (who finished 10-4), so you can see how tough things were in the White division.

Best Pick: Kenyan Drake

Worst Pick: Eric Ebron

Strongest position: WR

Draft Grade: C

2018 Predicted Finish: 8-6

Summary: It was a tough draft for me (not to make excuses but I will) because I was watching my kid and half drafting at the same time, so more than once I came back and had to scramble.  In the end, I think there were a few picks that could have gone better and my record will reflect that. The MeggaMen will field a questionable QB in Andrew Luck but it could payoff if he returns to form.  At RB, things look better with David Johnson and Kenyan Drake leading the way. At WR, the MeggaMen are dominant with Odell Beckham, TY Hilton, and Michael Thomas. TE is an area of real concern with no great starting options.  On defense, the MeggaMen field a strong group with top DL, LB, and DBs. In this division, the MeggaMen could go 9-5 or 5-9 so it's a long, hard ride to the finish.

Sacks on the Beach

2017 Predicted Finish: 11-3

2017 Actual Finish: 9-5

2017 Results: Mike continues to dominate the WMFFL and had yet another season with a winning record (his 13th straight).  He is the most consistent owner, continually excels with player management, and is always in the hunt for the division title.  This past year was no exception, even in a brutal White division he managed a 9-5 record and played for the title, losing (yet again) to Josh.  His amazing regular season record is marred by his playoff struggles and .421 playoff winning percentage.

Best Pick: Marlon Mack

Worst Pick: Drew Brees

Strongest position: Not sure, QB maybe?

Draft Grade: D+

2018 Predicted Finish: 5-9

Summary: There has to be a lull at some point for the Sacks and I think this might be the year.  Mike took a big hit by missing much of the draft this year and the state of his team reflects this.  I thought the pick of Amari Cooper was a stretch and Brees is a big name but on the downswing of his career and on a team that has gone to run-first mode.  Granted auto-pick grabbed many of these guys but I still think, in a super tough division, it will be a tough year for him. Mike has been known to get out of tight spots before though so if any owner can turn it around, he can.  He'll field a top QB in Wentz (when healthy), a top RB in Kareem Hunt, and super-WR in Antonio Brown (by far his best player and the guy who often carries his team). On defense, he's just ok all-around, with no real stand outs.

Testudos Revenge (formerly Woodland Rangers)

2017 Predicted Finish: 9-5

2017 Actual Finish: 7-7

2017 Results: How quickly things change.  Two years ago, Derek took the league by storm by blasting his way to a 10-4 record and a league title as a rookie owner.  Last year his fortunes took a turn for the worse though, and he managed to limp to a mere 7-7 record. Things looked good for the Rangers early on, as they jumped out to a 6-2 record, but the bottom dropped out thereafter and they went 1-5 to close out the season.

Best Pick: Stefon Diggs

Worst Pick: Jared Goff

Strongest position: RB

Draft Grade: B+

2018 Predicted Finish: 8-6

Summary: With 18 draft picks in total, you would think Derek would have an impressive draft and he did indeed do well.  I thought Goff in the first was a stretch Diggs was a good pick and Alex Collins in the second round could prove to be a strong pick.  He'll field a potentially top QB in Goff, arguable the best RB core in the league with Ezekiel Elliott, Melvin Gordon, and Collins backing them both up.  At WR things are less optimistic with Diggs a solid starter but, behind him, there are question marks with Josh Gordon, Kupp, Fuller, Juju, and certainly Cobb.  He's potentially solid at TE if Greg Olsen can stay healthy. On defense things are uglier, his DL is severely lacking, he's got a great LB in Blake Martinez and superstar DB in Landon Collins, but the rest are just ok.  Derek's defense last year was subpar and this group could, yet again, prove to be his undoing.

Burgundy Division Winner: Norsemen

Gold Division Winner: Crusaders

White Division Winner: Testudos Revenge

Wild Card: MeggaMen

Playoff Winners: Crusaders and Testudos Revenge

League Champ: Crusaders

Comeback Team of the Year: Sean Taylor's Ashes

Manager of the Year: Don Inman

As always, good luck to everyone (except Warren)!